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Randomly determined process

Stochastic refers to a randomly determined process.[1] The word first appeared in English to describe a mathematical object called a stochastic process, but now in mathematics the terms stochastic process and random process are considered interchangeable.[2][3][4][5][6] The word, with its current definition meaning random, came from German, but it originally came from Greek σÏόχÎς (st"khos), meaning 'aim, guess'.[1]

The term stochastic is used in many different fields, particularly where stochastic or random processes are used to represent systems or phenomena that seem to change in a random way. The term is used in the physical sciences such as biology,[7] chemistry,[8] ecology,[9] neuroscience,[10] and physics[11] as well as technology and engineering fields such as image processing, signal processing,[12] information theory,[13] computer science,[14] (including the field of artificial intelligence), cryptography[15] and telecommunications.[16] It is also used in finance, due to seemingly random changes in financial markets[17][18][19] as well as in medicine, linguistics, music, media, colour theory, botany, manufacturing, and geomorphology.

Stochastic social science theory is similar to systems theory.

Etymology [ edit ] The word stochastic in English was originally used as an adjective with the definition "pertaining to conjecturing", and stemming from a Greek word meaning "to aim at a mark, guess", and the Oxford English Dictionary gives the year 1662 as its earliest occurrence.[1] In his work on probability Ars Conjectandi, originally published in Latin in 1713, Jakob Bernoulli used the phrase "Ars Conjectandi sive Stochastice", which has been translated to "the art of conjecturing or stochastics".[20] This phrase was used, with reference to Bernoulli, by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz,[21] who in 1917 wrote in German the word stochastik with a sense meaning random. The term stochastic process first appeared in English in a 1934 paper by Joseph Doob.[1] For the term and a specific mathematical definition, Doob cited another 1934 paper, where the term stochastischer ProzeŸ was used in German by Aleksandr Khinchin,[22][23] though the German term had been used earlier in 1931 by Andrey Kolmogorov.[24]

Artificial intelligence [ edit ] In artificial intelligence, stochastic programs work by using probabilistic methods to solve problems, as in simulated annealing, stochastic neural networks, stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, and genetic programming. A problem itself may be stochastic as well, as in planning under uncertainty.

Mathematics [ edit ] In the early 1930s, Aleksandr Khinchin gave the first mathematical definition of a stochastic process as a family of random variables indexed by the real line.[25][22][a] Further fundamental work on probability theory and stochastic processes was done by Khinchin as well as other mathematicians such as Andrey Kolmogorov, Joseph Doob, William Feller, Maurice Fr(C)chet, Paul L(C)vy, Wolfgang Doeblin, and Harald Cram(C)r.[27][28] Decades later Cram(C)r referred to the 1930s as the "heroic period of mathematical probability theory".[28]

In mathematics, the theory of stochastic processes is considered to be an important contribution to probability theory, [29] and continues to be an active topic of research for both theoretical reasons and applications.[30][31][32]

The word stochastic is used to describe other terms and objects in mathematics. Examples include a stochastic matrix, which describes a stochastic process known as a Markov process, and stochastic calculus, which involves differential equations and integrals based on stochastic processes such as the Wiener process, also called the Brownian motion process.

Natural science [ edit ] One of the simplest continuous-time stochastic processes is Brownian motion. This was first observed by botanist Robert Brown while looking through a microscope at pollen grains in water.

Physics [ edit ] The name "Monte Carlo" for the stochastic Monte Carlo method was popularized by physics researchers Stanisław Ulam, Enrico Fermi, John von Neumann, and Nicholas Metropolis, among others. The name is a reference to the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco where Ulam's uncle would borrow money to gamble.[33] The use of randomness and the repetitive nature of the process are analogous to the activities conducted at a casino.Methods of simulation and statistical sampling generally did the opposite: using simulation to test a previously understood deterministic problem. Though examples of an "inverted" approach do exist historically, they were not considered a general method until the popularity of the Monte Carlo method spread.

Perhaps the most famous early use was by Enrico Fermi in 1930, when he used a random method to calculate the properties of the newly discovered neutron. Monte Carlo methods were central to the simulations required for the Manhattan Project, though were severely limited by the computational tools at the time. Therefore, it was only after electronic computers were first built (from 1945 on) that Monte Carlo methods began to be studied in depth. In the 1950s they were used at Los Alamos for early work relating to the development of the hydrogen bomb, and became popularized in the fields of physics, physical chemistry, and operations research. The RAND Corporation and the U.S. Air Force were two of the major organizations responsible for funding and disseminating information on Monte Carlo methods during this time, and they began to find a wide application in many different fields.

Uses of Monte Carlo methods require large amounts of random numbers, and it was their use that spurred the development of pseudorandom number generators, which were far quicker to use than the tables of random numbers which had been previously used for statistical sampling.

Biology [ edit ] Stochastic resonance: In biological systems, introducing stochastic "noise" has been found to help improve the signal strength of the internal feedback loops for balance and other vestibular communication.[34] It has been found to help diabetic and stroke patients with balance control.[35] Many biochemical events also lend themselves to stochastic analysis. Gene expression, for example, has a stochastic component through the molecular collisions'--as during binding and unbinding of RNA polymerase to a gene promoter'--via the solution's Brownian motion.

Creativity [ edit ] Simonton (2003, Psych Bulletin) argues that creativity in science (of scientists) is a constrained stochastic behaviour such that new theories in all sciences are, at least in part, the product of a stochastic process.

Computer science [ edit ] Stochastic ray tracing is the application of Monte Carlo simulation to the computer graphics ray tracing algorithm. "Distributed ray tracing samples the integrand at many randomly chosen points and averages the results to obtain a better approximation. It is essentially an application of the Monte Carlo method to 3D computer graphics, and for this reason is also called Stochastic ray tracing."[citation needed ]

Stochastic forensics analyzes computer crime by viewing computers as stochastic processes.

Finance [ edit ] The financial markets use stochastic models to represent the seemingly random behaviour of assets such as stocks, commodities, relative currency prices (i.e., the price of one currency compared to that of another, such as the price of US Dollar compared to that of the Euro), and interest rates. These models are then used by quantitative analysts to value options on stock prices, bond prices, and on interest rates, see Markov models. Moreover, it is at the heart of the insurance industry.

Geomorphology [ edit ] The formation of river meanders has been analyzed as a stochastic process

Language and linguistics [ edit ] Non-deterministic approaches in language studies are largely inspired by the work of Ferdinand de Saussure, for example, in functionalist linguistic theory, which argues that competence is based on performance.[36][37] This distinction in functional theories of grammar should be carefully distinguished from the langue and parole distinction. To the extent that linguistic knowledge is constituted by experience with language, grammar is argued to be probabilistic and variable rather than fixed and absolute. This conception of grammar as probabilistic and variable follows from the idea that one's competence changes in accordance with one's experience with language. Though this conception has been contested,[38] it has also provided the foundation for modern statistical natural language processing[39] and for theories of language learning and change.[40]

Manufacturing [ edit ] Manufacturing processes are assumed to be stochastic processes. This assumption is largely valid for either continuous or batch manufacturing processes. Testing and monitoring of the process is recorded using a process control chart which plots a given process control parameter over time. Typically a dozen or many more parameters will be tracked simultaneously. Statistical models are used to define limit lines which define when corrective actions must be taken to bring the process back to its intended operational window.

This same approach is used in the service industry where parameters are replaced by processes related to service level agreements.

Media [ edit ] The marketing and the changing movement of audience tastes and preferences, as well as the solicitation of and the scientific appeal of certain film and television debuts (i.e., their opening weekends, word-of-mouth, top-of-mind knowledge among surveyed groups, star name recognition and other elements of social media outreach and advertising), are determined in part by stochastic modeling. A recent attempt at repeat business analysis was done by Japanese scholars[citation needed ] and is part of the Cinematic Contagion Systems patented by Geneva Media Holdings, and such modeling has been used in data collection from the time of the original Nielsen ratings to modern studio and television test audiences.

Medicine [ edit ] Stochastic effect, or "chance effect" is one classification of radiation effects that refers to the random, statistical nature of the damage. In contrast to the deterministic effect, severity is independent of dose. Only the probability of an effect increases with dose.

Music [ edit ] In music, mathematical processes based on probability can generate stochastic elements.

Stochastic processes may be used in music to compose a fixed piece or may be produced in performance. Stochastic music was pioneered by Iannis Xenakis, who coined the term stochastic music. Specific examples of mathematics, statistics, and physics applied to music composition are the use of the statistical mechanics of gases in Pithoprakta, statistical distribution of points on a plane in Diamorphoses, minimal constraints in Achorripsis, the normal distribution in ST/10 and Atr(C)es, Markov chains in Analogiques, game theory in Duel and Strat(C)gie, group theory in Nomos Alpha (for Siegfried Palm), set theory in Herma and Eonta,[41] and Brownian motion in N'Shima.[citation needed ] Xenakis frequently used computers to produce his scores, such as the ST series including Morsima-Amorsima and Atr(C)es, and founded CEMAMu. Earlier, John Cage and others had composed aleatoric or indeterminate music, which is created by chance processes but does not have the strict mathematical basis (Cage's Music of Changes, for example, uses a system of charts based on the I-Ching). Lejaren Hiller and Leonard Issacson used generative grammars and Markov chains in their 1957 Illiac Suite. Modern electronic music production techniques make these processes relatively simple to implement, and many hardware devices such as synthesizers and drum machines incorporate randomization features. Generative music techniques are therefore readily accessible to composers, performers, and producers.

[ edit ] Stochastic social science theory is similar to systems theory in that events are interactions of systems, although with a marked emphasis on unconscious processes. The event creates its own conditions of possibility, rendering it unpredictable if simply for the number of variables involved. Stochastic social science theory can be seen as an elaboration of a kind of 'third axis' in which to situate human behavior alongside the traditional 'nature vs. nurture' opposition. See Julia Kristeva on her usage of the 'semiotic', Luce Irigaray on reverse Heideggerian epistemology, and Pierre Bourdieu on polythetic space for examples of stochastic social science theory.[citation needed ]

The term "Stochastic Terrorism" has fallen into frequent use [42] with regard to Lone wolf (terrorism). The terms "Scripted Violence" and "Stochastic Terrorism" are linked in a "cause <> effect" relationship. "Scripted Violence" rhetoric can result in an act of "Stochastic Terrorism." The phrase "scripted violence" has been used in social science since at least 2002.[43]

Author David Neiwert, who wrote the book Alt-America, told Salon interviewer Chauncey Devega:

Scripted violence is where a person who has a national platform describes the kind of violence that they want to be carried out. He identifies the targets and leaves it up to the listeners to carry out this violence. It is a form of terrorism. It is an act and a social phenomenon where there is an agreement to inflict massive violence on a whole segment of society. Again, this violence is led by people in high-profile positions in the media and the government. They're the ones who do the scripting, and it is ordinary people who carry it out.

Think of it like Charles Manson and his followers. Manson wrote the script; he didn't commit any of those murders. He just had his followers carry them out.[44]

Subtractive color reproduction [ edit ] When color reproductions are made, the image is separated into its component colors by taking multiple photographs filtered for each color. One resultant film or plate represents each of the cyan, magenta, yellow, and black data. Color printing is a binary system, where ink is either present or not present, so all color separations to be printed must be translated into dots at some stage of the work-flow. Traditional line screens which are amplitude modulated had problems with moir(C) but were used until stochastic screening became available. A stochastic (or frequency modulated) dot pattern creates a sharper image.

See also [ edit ] Jump processSortitionStochastic processNotes [ edit ] ^ Doob, when citing Khinchin, uses the term 'chance variable', which used to be an alternative term for 'random variable'.[26] References [ edit ] ^ a b c d "Stochastic". Lexico UK Dictionary. Oxford University Press. ^ Robert J. Adler; Jonathan E. Taylor (29 January 2009). Random Fields and Geometry. Springer Science & Business Media. pp. 7''8. ISBN 978-0-387-48116-6. ^ David Stirzaker (2005). Stochastic Processes and Models. Oxford University Press. p. 45. ISBN 978-0-19-856814-8. ^ Lo¯c Chaumont; Marc Yor (19 July 2012). Exercises in Probability: A Guided Tour from Measure Theory to Random Processes, Via Conditioning. Cambridge University Press. p. 175. ISBN 978-1-107-60655-5. ^ Murray Rosenblatt (1962). Random Processes. Oxford University Press. p. 91. ^ Olav Kallenberg (8 January 2002). Foundations of Modern Probability. Springer Science & Business Media. pp. 24 and 25. ISBN 978-0-387-95313-7. ^ Paul C. Bressloff (22 August 2014). Stochastic Processes in Cell Biology. Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-08488-6. ^ N.G. Van Kampen (30 August 2011). Stochastic Processes in Physics and Chemistry. Elsevier. ISBN 978-0-08-047536-3. ^ Russell Lande; Steinar Engen; Bernt-Erik S...ther (2003). Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-852525-7. ^ Carlo Laing; Gabriel J Lord (2010). Stochastic Methods in Neuroscience. OUP Oxford. ISBN 978-0-19-923507-0. ^ Wolfgang Paul; J¶rg Baschnagel (11 July 2013). Stochastic Processes: From Physics to Finance. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-3-319-00327-6. ^ Edward R. Dougherty (1999). Random processes for image and signal processing. SPIE Optical Engineering Press. ISBN 978-0-8194-2513-3. ^ Thomas M. Cover; Joy A. Thomas (28 November 2012). Elements of Information Theory. John Wiley & Sons. p. 71. ISBN 978-1-118-58577-1. ^ Michael Baron (15 September 2015). Probability and Statistics for Computer Scientists, Second Edition. CRC Press. p. 131. ISBN 978-1-4987-6060-7. ^ Jonathan Katz; Yehuda Lindell (2007-08-31). Introduction to Modern Cryptography: Principles and Protocols. CRC Press. p. 26. ISBN 978-1-58488-586-3. ^ Fran§ois Baccelli; Bartlomiej Blaszczyszyn (2009). Stochastic Geometry and Wireless Networks. Now Publishers Inc. pp. 200''. ISBN 978-1-60198-264-3. ^ J. Michael Steele (2001). Stochastic Calculus and Financial Applications. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-0-387-95016-7. ^ Marek Musiela; Marek Rutkowski (21 January 2006). Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-3-540-26653-2. ^ Steven E. Shreve (3 June 2004). Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-0-387-40101-0. ^ O. B. SheÄ­nin (2006). Theory of probability and statistics as exemplified in short dictums. NG Verlag. p. 5. ISBN 978-3-938417-40-9. ^ Oscar Sheynin; Heinrich Strecker (2011). Alexandr A. Chuprov: Life, Work, Correspondence. V&R unipress GmbH. p. 136. ISBN 978-3-89971-812-6. ^ a b Doob, Joseph (1934). "Stochastic Processes and Statistics". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 20 (6): 376''379. doi:10.1073/pnas.20.6.376. PMC 1076423 . PMID 16587907. ^ Khintchine, A. (1934). "Korrelationstheorie der stationeren stochastischen Prozesse". Mathematische Annalen. 109 (1): 604''615. doi:10.1007/BF01449156. ISSN 0025-5831. ^ Kolmogoroff, A. (1931). "'ber die analytischen Methoden in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung". Mathematische Annalen. 104 (1): 1. doi:10.1007/BF01457949. ISSN 0025-5831. ^ Vere-Jones, David (2006). "Khinchin, Aleksandr Yakovlevich": 4. doi:10.1002/0471667196.ess6027.pub2. ^ Snell, J. Laurie (2005). "Obituary: Joseph Leonard Doob". Journal of Applied Probability. 42 (1): 251. doi:10.1240/jap/1110381384 . ISSN 0021-9002. ^ Bingham, N. (2000). "Studies in the history of probability and statistics XLVI. Measure into probability: from Lebesgue to Kolmogorov". Biometrika. 87 (1): 145''156. doi:10.1093/biomet/87.1.145. ISSN 0006-3444. ^ a b Cramer, Harald (1976). "Half a Century with Probability Theory: Some Personal Recollections". The Annals of Probability. 4 (4): 509''546. doi:10.1214/aop/1176996025 . ISSN 0091-1798. ^ Applebaum, David (2004). "L(C)vy processes: From probability to finance and quantum groups". Notices of the AMS. 51 (11): 1336''1347. ^ Jochen Blath; Peter Imkeller; Sylvie RÅ'lly (2011). Surveys in Stochastic Processes. European Mathematical Society. pp. 5''. ISBN 978-3-03719-072-2. ^ Michel Talagrand (12 February 2014). Upper and Lower Bounds for Stochastic Processes: Modern Methods and Classical Problems. Springer Science & Business Media. pp. 4''. ISBN 978-3-642-54075-2. ^ Paul C. Bressloff (22 August 2014). Stochastic Processes in Cell Biology. Springer. pp. vii''ix. ISBN 978-3-319-08488-6. ^ Douglas Hubbard "How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business" p. 46, John Wiley & Sons, 2007 ^ H¤nggi, P. (2002). "Stochastic Resonance in Biology How Noise Can Enhance Detection of Weak Signals and Help Improve Biological Information Processing". ChemPhysChem. 3 (3): 285''90. doi:10.1002/1439-7641(20020315)3:3<285::AID-CPHC285>3.0.CO;2-A. PMID 12503175. ^ Priplata, A.; et al. (2006). "Noise-Enhanced Balance Control in Patients with Diabetes and Patients with Stroke" (PDF) . Ann Neurol. 59: 4''12. doi:10.1002/ana.20670. PMID 16287079. ^ Newmeyer, Frederick. 2001. "The Prague School and North American functionalist approaches to syntax" Journal of Linguistics 37, pp. 101''126. "Since most American functionalists adhere to this trend, I will refer to it and its practitioners with the initials 'USF'. Some of the more prominent USFs are Joan Bybee, William Croft, Talmy Givon, John Haiman, Paul Hopper, Marianne Mithun and Sandra Thompson. In its most extreme form (Hopper 1987, 1988), USF rejects the Saussurean dichotomies such as langue vs. par´le. For early interpretivist approaches to focus, see Chomsky (1971) and Jackendoff (1972). parole and synchrony vs. diachrony. All adherents of this tendency feel that the Chomskyan advocacy of a sharp distinction between competence and performance is at best unproductive and obscurantist; at worst theoretically unmotivated." ^ Bybee, Joan. "Usage-based phonology." p. 213 in Darnel, Mike (ed). 1999. Functionalism and Formalism in Linguistics: General papers. John Benjamins Publishing Company ^ Chomsky (1959). Review of Skinner's Verbal Behavior, Language, 35: 26''58 ^ Manning and Sch¼tze, (1999) Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing, MIT Press. Cambridge, MA ^ Bybee (2007) Frequency of use and the organization of language. Oxford: Oxford University Press ^ Ilias Chrissochoidis, Stavros Houliaras, and Christos Mitsakis, "Set theory in Xenakis' EONTA", in International Symposium Iannis Xenakis, ed. Anastasia Georgaki and Makis Solomos (Athens: The National and Kapodistrian University, 2005), 241''249. ^ Anthony Scaramucci says he does not support President Trump's reelection on YouTube published August 12, 2019 CNN ^ Hamamoto, Darrell Y. (2002). "Empire of Death: Militarized Society and the Rise of Serial Killing and Mass Murder". New Political Science. 24 (1): 105''120. doi:10.1080/07393140220122662. ^ DeVega, Chauncey (1 November 2018). "Author David Neiwert on the outbreak of political violence". Salon . Retrieved 13 December 2018 . Further reading [ edit ] See the stochastic process of an 8-foot-tall (2.4 m) Probability Machine comparing stock market returns to the randomness of the beans dropping through the quincunx pattern on YouTube. from Index Funds Advisors IFA.comFormalized Music: Thought and Mathematics in Composition by Iannis Xenakis, ISBN 1-57647-079-2Frequency and the Emergence of Linguistic Structure by Joan Bybee and Paul Hopper (eds.), ISBN 1-58811-028-1/ISBN 90-272-2948-1 (Eur.)The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model provides documentation and computer code for modeling stochastic processes in Visual Basic for Applications.External links [ edit ] The dictionary definition of stochastic at Wiktionary

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Tue, 05 May 2020 10:18

May 5, 2020

If there was any doubt that Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was Target Zero in the Russia Collision conspiracy or that President Barack Obama was an active co-conspirator, presidential counselor Kellyanne Conway put those doubts to bed last week.

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''I would remind everybody that President Obama told President-elect Trump he had two things to worry about: North Korea and Michael Flynn,'' Conway said last Thursday on Fox's America Newsroom.

''Folks, that's just weird on its face,'' Conway continued, as if folks needed to be told. ''You gotta worry about a nuclear-capable dictator in North Korea, and you gotta worry about a general of 37 years who served in'... the Obama administration.''

Conway's comments came in the wake of the unnerving revelation that FBI higher-ups actively plotted to drive Flynn, the designated national security adviser, from the Trump White House.

'); googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1567099776462-0'); }); } ''What's our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?'' wrote an FBI official, believed to be former FBI counterintelligence director Bill Priestap. ''If we get him to admit to breaking the Logan Act, give facts to DOJ & have them decide. Or, if he initially lies, then we present him [redacted] & he admits it, document for DOJ, & let them decide how to address it.''

This revelation shocked even Bush confidantes into outrage. ''On what planet is it ever acceptable for FBI agents to discuss how or if they can get someone fired?'' tweeted Ari Fleischer, former Bush White House spokesman. ''Comey and his top officials were out of control.''

Lost in the hubbub was the question of why it was Flynn who so concerned Barack Obama. The more general answer is that Flynn was the one Obama appointee not afraid to speak his mind. Appointed to head the Defense Intelligence Agency in April 2012 by Obama, Flynn was forced out two years later for, well, speaking his mind.

Although news reports at the time were circumspect about the reasons for Flynn's departure, a leaked email from retired Gen. Colin Powell in September 2016 spoke to the sentiments of Obama insiders: ''I asked why Flynn got fired. Abusive with staff, didn't listen, worked against policy, bad management, etc. He has been and was right-wing nutty every [ sic] since.''

Flynn, of course, did not get to be a lieutenant general by being a bad and abusive manager. He abruptly became bad and abusive by not being an Obama sycophant, especially on Islamic issues. Nor did Flynn become a target of the Russia collusion conspirators for his presumed right-wing nuttiness.

Flynn almost assuredly became Target Zero for his willingness to expose and undo what Obama considered his signature foreign policy achievement, the Iran nuclear deal. Obama may have suspected that the deal was fatally flawed, but there was one thing he knew, namely that the deal was built on a framework of lies and deceptions.

''The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns,'' the oddly incautious Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes boasted of the Iran con job. ''We created an echo chamber. They were saying things that validated what we had given them to say.''

Flynn, by contrast, was saying things that invalidated the Rhodes talking points. In March 2015, while Obama's people were selling a swooning media the deal's imagined virtues, Flynn was sharing some inconvenient truths.

"Iran is also a country with ballistic missiles, cyber capabilities. They are also still a state-sponsor of terrorism,'' Flynn told Chris Wallace on Fox News. ''And here we are dealing with them as though we're going to give them a carte blanche -- I know it will be some number of years to have a nuclear capability. Give me a break!"

Had Flynn remained a nutty outlier restricted to the conservative news ghetto, the Obama crowd could have ignored him. When Flynn moved into Trump's inner circle, he morphed from nuisance to threat.

On February 26, 2016, the conspirators began their sabotage campaign against Flynn with an article in Yahoo News. The article led the with the seemingly shocking revelation that Trump was ''receiving foreign policy advice from a former U.S. military intelligence chief who wants the United States to work more closely with Russia.''

The co-author of that article was one Mark Hosenball. As I detailed in a December 2019 article in American Thinker, Hosenball, wittingly or otherwise, served as the CIA's chief propagandist in the investigation into the 1996 destruction of TWA Flight 800. I told Hosenball as much in 2003 when I met him at the Newsweek office where he was then working. As the reader might suspect, it was an unpleasant encounter.

In 2016, Hosenball was still apparently carrying water for the intelligence community. Three sources, allegedly ''former foreign policy officials in past administrations,'' tipped him off to this seemingly ominous news of Flynn's softness on Russia.

In retrospect, what makes the article suspect is that Russia had not yet become the media's public enemy number one, let alone the White House's. In July 2015, for instance, Obama called Russian President Vladimir Putin to thank him for his help securing the Iran nuclear pact.

Obama had reason to be grateful. No foreign leader had more influence over the mullahs than Putin. As Obama told Tom Friedman of the New York Times, ''We would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia's willingness to stick with us and the other P5-Plus members in insisting on a strong deal.''

In July 2015, it was still respectable for an American president to collaborate with Putin. If fact, as even Hosenball acknowledged, other Republican candidates had been criticizing Obama for being ''weak in standing up to the Russian leader.'' Indeed, Obama had famously mocked Mitt Romney in a 2012 debate for taking the Russian threat seriously.

''Weird'' as it may seem, the conspirators at the White House chose to frame Russia in order to frame Flynn. To pull this off, they had to validate Romney's claim in 2012 that Russia was ''our No. 1 geopolitical foe.''

When Romney made this claim during the 2012 foreign policy debate, Obama countered with a scripted zinger: ''The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the Cold War's been over for twenty years.'' As Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler noted at the time, the Obama jab ''spawned approving headlines.''

For eight years, the headlines went wherever Obama directed them. Seeing how willing the media were to validate ''what we had given them to say'' about Russia and Flynn, the conspirators subsequently played the Russia card on Trump. I am sure even Obama was shocked at how well the whole damn thing played out -- at least until it didn't.

Jack Cashill's forthcoming book, Unmasking Obama, is available for pre-order at Amazon.

If there was any doubt that Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was Target Zero in the Russia Collision conspiracy or that President Barack Obama was an active co-conspirator, presidential counselor Kellyanne Conway put those doubts to bed last week.

''I would remind everybody that President Obama told President-elect Trump he had two things to worry about: North Korea and Michael Flynn,'' Conway said last Thursday on Fox's America Newsroom.

''Folks, that's just weird on its face,'' Conway continued, as if folks needed to be told. ''You gotta worry about a nuclear-capable dictator in North Korea, and you gotta worry about a general of 37 years who served in'... the Obama administration.''

Conway's comments came in the wake of the unnerving revelation that FBI higher-ups actively plotted to drive Flynn, the designated national security adviser, from the Trump White House.

''What's our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?'' wrote an FBI official, believed to be former FBI counterintelligence director Bill Priestap. ''If we get him to admit to breaking the Logan Act, give facts to DOJ & have them decide. Or, if he initially lies, then we present him [redacted] & he admits it, document for DOJ, & let them decide how to address it.''

This revelation shocked even Bush confidantes into outrage. ''On what planet is it ever acceptable for FBI agents to discuss how or if they can get someone fired?'' tweeted Ari Fleischer, former Bush White House spokesman. ''Comey and his top officials were out of control.''

Lost in the hubbub was the question of why it was Flynn who so concerned Barack Obama. The more general answer is that Flynn was the one Obama appointee not afraid to speak his mind. Appointed to head the Defense Intelligence Agency in April 2012 by Obama, Flynn was forced out two years later for, well, speaking his mind.

Although news reports at the time were circumspect about the reasons for Flynn's departure, a leaked email from retired Gen. Colin Powell in September 2016 spoke to the sentiments of Obama insiders: ''I asked why Flynn got fired. Abusive with staff, didn't listen, worked against policy, bad management, etc. He has been and was right-wing nutty every [ sic] since.''

Flynn, of course, did not get to be a lieutenant general by being a bad and abusive manager. He abruptly became bad and abusive by not being an Obama sycophant, especially on Islamic issues. Nor did Flynn become a target of the Russia collusion conspirators for his presumed right-wing nuttiness.

Flynn almost assuredly became Target Zero for his willingness to expose and undo what Obama considered his signature foreign policy achievement, the Iran nuclear deal. Obama may have suspected that the deal was fatally flawed, but there was one thing he knew, namely that the deal was built on a framework of lies and deceptions.

''The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns,'' the oddly incautious Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes boasted of the Iran con job. ''We created an echo chamber. They were saying things that validated what we had given them to say.''

Flynn, by contrast, was saying things that invalidated the Rhodes talking points. In March 2015, while Obama's people were selling a swooning media the deal's imagined virtues, Flynn was sharing some inconvenient truths.

"Iran is also a country with ballistic missiles, cyber capabilities. They are also still a state-sponsor of terrorism,'' Flynn told Chris Wallace on Fox News. ''And here we are dealing with them as though we're going to give them a carte blanche -- I know it will be some number of years to have a nuclear capability. Give me a break!"

Had Flynn remained a nutty outlier restricted to the conservative news ghetto, the Obama crowd could have ignored him. When Flynn moved into Trump's inner circle, he morphed from nuisance to threat.

On February 26, 2016, the conspirators began their sabotage campaign against Flynn with an article in Yahoo News. The article led the with the seemingly shocking revelation that Trump was ''receiving foreign policy advice from a former U.S. military intelligence chief who wants the United States to work more closely with Russia.''

The co-author of that article was one Mark Hosenball. As I detailed in a December 2019 article in American Thinker, Hosenball, wittingly or otherwise, served as the CIA's chief propagandist in the investigation into the 1996 destruction of TWA Flight 800. I told Hosenball as much in 2003 when I met him at the Newsweek office where he was then working. As the reader might suspect, it was an unpleasant encounter.

In 2016, Hosenball was still apparently carrying water for the intelligence community. Three sources, allegedly ''former foreign policy officials in past administrations,'' tipped him off to this seemingly ominous news of Flynn's softness on Russia.

In retrospect, what makes the article suspect is that Russia had not yet become the media's public enemy number one, let alone the White House's. In July 2015, for instance, Obama called Russian President Vladimir Putin to thank him for his help securing the Iran nuclear pact.

Obama had reason to be grateful. No foreign leader had more influence over the mullahs than Putin. As Obama told Tom Friedman of the New York Times, ''We would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia's willingness to stick with us and the other P5-Plus members in insisting on a strong deal.''

In July 2015, it was still respectable for an American president to collaborate with Putin. If fact, as even Hosenball acknowledged, other Republican candidates had been criticizing Obama for being ''weak in standing up to the Russian leader.'' Indeed, Obama had famously mocked Mitt Romney in a 2012 debate for taking the Russian threat seriously.

''Weird'' as it may seem, the conspirators at the White House chose to frame Russia in order to frame Flynn. To pull this off, they had to validate Romney's claim in 2012 that Russia was ''our No. 1 geopolitical foe.''

When Romney made this claim during the 2012 foreign policy debate, Obama countered with a scripted zinger: ''The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the Cold War's been over for twenty years.'' As Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler noted at the time, the Obama jab ''spawned approving headlines.''

For eight years, the headlines went wherever Obama directed them. Seeing how willing the media were to validate ''what we had given them to say'' about Russia and Flynn, the conspirators subsequently played the Russia card on Trump. I am sure even Obama was shocked at how well the whole damn thing played out -- at least until it didn't.

Jack Cashill's forthcoming book, Unmasking Obama, is available for pre-order at Amazon.